Tin market opened slightly higher in the night session and fluctuated downward, with purchasing sentiment among downstream and end-user enterprises remaining sluggish [SMM Tin Morning Brief].

SMM Tin Morning Brief on November 21, 2025:

Futures: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2512) opened slightly higher in the night session, then fluctuated downward and closed at 292,990 yuan/mt, down 0.16% from the previous trading day.

Macro: (1) The US Fed's Paulson stated that she would be cautious about the upcoming interest rate decision meeting next month, but she is more concerned about weakness in the job market. Paulson said, "Each interest rate cut brings us closer to the level where policy shifts from restraining economic activity to boosting it. Therefore, I am cautious about the December FOMC meeting." She noted, "Each interest rate cut raises the threshold for the next cut." Nevertheless, Paulson also said, "I remain more concerned about the job market than inflation, but I expect to learn a lot between now and the next meeting." Paulson added that due to a basic balance in labour supply and demand, the unemployment rate is "close" to the full employment level. However, new job additions are mainly concentrated in the healthcare and social assistance sectors, a trend that may indicate potential problems. (2) US Fed—① Barr: Expressed concern that inflation remains at 3%. Needs to support the labour market but must restore inflation to 2%. ② Harker: Further interest rate cuts could prolong high inflation and pose financial stability risks. ③ Goolsbee: Expressed unease about a December interest rate cut, unwilling to overbet on "transitory inflation." 50-year mortgages could weaken the impact of monetary policy. ④ Cook: Would not be surprised if historically high asset prices plummet. ⑤ White House adviser Hassett: Data show we should cut interest rates at the next Fed meeting. (3) According to foreign media reports, OpenAI is collaborating with Foxconn to design and manufacture hardware for data centers. It is reported that Foxconn will jointly design and develop data center server racks with OpenAI and work to ensure these racks can be produced across the US. Foxconn also plans to produce cables, power systems, and other key equipment for AI data center facilities within the US. Both companies stated that the agreement with OpenAI does not include specific purchase commitments. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said in a statement, "This collaboration is an important step to ensure core technologies for the AI era are born here. We believe this work will solidify US leadership and help widely share the benefits of AI."

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply is tightening in major production areas like Yunnan, and most smelters are expected to maintain relatively stable production in November. (2) Demand side: Due to weak demand in the consumer electronics and home appliance markets, orders have decreased significantly. Downstream procurement remains cautious, with high prices significantly suppressing actual consumption. Emerging sectors provide limited boost: although the increase in AI computing power and the growth in PV installations have driven some tin consumption, their current contribution remains small and insufficient to offset the decline in consumption from traditional sectors.

Spot market: Overall spot transactions were sluggish. Although tin prices fluctuated downward throughout the day, they remained at a relatively high level, leading to weak purchasing sentiment among downstream and end-user enterprises. Most orders were based on just-in-time procurement, with no immediate plans for restocking. The slight gap-up opening in the night session further suppressed spot transactions. Most traders reported transactions of only around 10 mt yesterday.

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